Kim Kardashian is on her knees for Santa...
...and Macaulay Culkin.
Good morning everyone. I’m spending Christmas in and around the city, eating pasta, doing yoga, and packing and shipping Feed Me sweatshirts.
Today’s letter includes:
An excellent column from
. His industry predictions are super engaging — not just bland repetitions of other media reporting. Writing something topical about movies to understand the Luigi news was also new to meA refreshingly fucked up Kim Kardashian home video
A warning for parents with kids who are stoners
Stay Tuned is a guest column on Feed Me written by . In this column, Teddy will be writing about when entertainment comes in contact with tech — and the implications of that.
Hollywood 2025
“Survive ’til ’25. That was the mantra on the lips of everyone working, and increasingly not working, in film and TV this year. Production in Los Angeles plummeted. The number of shows right-sized dramatically and downwards after years of spending to fill out streaming platforms with expiration dates. The movie business doesn’t look like it will recover to pre-Covid levels anytime soon. On top of that, we can’t even huddle around the fire and take solace in storytelling quality as the consolation for Hollywood’s commercial decline. No, this year’s most successful films feel decidedly mediocre and crushingly corporate, even in comparison to the recent years of IP-driven movies and sequels. Superhero fan or not, Deadpool & Wolverine is a far cry from Avengers: Endgame.
Anything might look good compared to movies right now, but even the best of contemporary television dims quite a bit in the light of the Golden Age of Television we just lived through until 2018, plus a few years of afterglow. After all, what comes after Succession?
So as the industry slowly shuts down for a few weeks and lunches are pushed to next year, end-of-year lists drawn, we seem to be at the heart of the winter of our dis-content, if you will, wondering if next year will actually bring the promise we’ve held out hope for.
I can’t say for sure about 2025, but I do think there are some developments and interesting seeds that spell change. I’ll save the forecasts for where Hollywood might be headed creatively and artistically for another column, but to a large degree most of that is downstream of what the industry’s economics allow for anyway. That’s why I think these changes have the potential to reshape what we’re all watching in the next 5-10 years, if not in 2025.
Ad-supported streaming (AVOD)
On a per-user basis, most streamers’ ad tiers already generate more revenue than their standard non-ad tiers. It’s you’ve seen a shift to push more and more subscribers onto the ad-tiers in addition to raising the prices of the non-ad tiers. Why this matters is that a major new vertical of ads will become increasingly important, especially as people continue to cut the cord and linear TV and its ad spending dies out. Is that a good thing? Who likes ads?
The unavoidable truth is that selling ads is a great business and when Netflix convinced everyone that no-ads was the truth and the way, it killed that golden goose. Now that ads are creeping back into the streaming model, that’s a renewed spigot of cash, cash that Netflix will happily report as profits for now, but also cash that talented actors, writers, and directors will increasingly want a piece of. The more money to go around, the more creation it can support.
Cost-plus licensing deals
Much of the content produced during the streaming boom was paid for under what’s called a “cost-plus” model where a buyer like Netflix will cover the production budget plus a ~10-20% margin for the producers’ profit. People respond to incentives, so you can imagine how this kind of model would encourage a mindset and production practices that regularly lead to something serviceable but not necessarily great. Why bother going the extra mile or two to make something amazing if you won’t share in the upside financially? Of course passionate creators everywhere often do, but relying on that kind of vision alone isn’t a system for success.
Compare that to the traditional deficit-financing deal where a studio producing a show would be paid a license fee by the distributing network, not enough to cover the budget, but enough so that both studio and network shared in the risk and upside. We’ve already started to see the streamers start to break the cost-plus orthodoxy with some deals. Companies like Matt Damon & Ben Affleck’s Artists Equity are trying to carve out a new way. In a world where streamers are trying to be profitable and stop making crap for the sake of making something, add the ad revenue back in and it’s really hard to see the streamers hold the line on keeping everything cost-plus. From a very good interview with the heads of UTA’s TV Lit department:
“The whole promise before was we’re going to have these things in perpetuity and we’re never going to have advertising so there’s no such thing as back-end, we’re just going to pay you this giant front-loaded deal. Then they take away the overall deals and start adding ads and selling their shows to other streamers so there has to be ownership interest. We have a group of clients who are completely excited about the idea of being entrepreneurial and doing that if there is something on the other end of it.”
Indie (TV)
I can’t say I’ve seen Tires, Shane Gillis’ Netflix comedy, but what catches my eye here is the fact that Gillis financed the first six episodes for the show which was later picked up by Netflix. Netflix also picked up US rights to Mark Duplass’ self-financed indie TV series, Penelope.
Differential pricing at the theaters
In effect, we basically already have this with the proliferation of what’s called Premium Large Format (PLF), i.e. the IMAX and Dolby tickets that cost more than the regular ones. (IMAX CEO Rich Gelfond did a great interview with Matt Belloni this year on how well IMAX is doing despite the stagnating theater business). If you have A-List or an Alamo Pass, you’re basically buying that one IMAX movie a month and then all the rest are marginally free. I think we’ll go further here and just end up charging different prices for different movies and different screening times, even more than we already do.
Pay-per-stream
This one is probably a long way off since the streamers will try to fight this tooth-and-nail. But it’s notable that it was even considered this year by Amazon, no matter how hot the package. If Spotify pays per-stream royalties, how much longer until that dam breaks in video?
AI Studios
How many more great TV shows and movies could we get if everything just cost half as much to make? That’s the ultimate promise for what AI could do for Hollywood if things go right. Gen AI already looks super promising for cutting down VFX and pre/production costs. We’re starting to see AI Studios start up around those tools and workflows, like this one backed by Peter Chernin and Andreessen Horowtiz. It’s early days but I’m confident we’ll see these AI native studios move fast and compete, at first at the edges, with the legacy ones before the incumbents are able to integrate what AI tools can do for them. On the other side, the AI studios might also develop faster than the tech companies who are focusing purely on building the tools:
When we stream to understand the world:
High and Low (1963) – If Pipeline (below) is the tight, focused heist movie, Akira Kurosawa’s High and Low is by comparison the big, ambitious film that is very entertaining as a police procedural but also works as a serious, social drama. This is one of my favorite films, and especially relevant now when so many people are trying to square the simple evil of Brian Thompson’s murder and the intellectual basis of Luigi Mangione’s motivations. I don’t want to spoil the movie, but it’s about a crime that happens to a decent man, who in his own way is trying to do right by his people. But by the end, the movie asks us if it’s enough to live a personally good life, or if there’s more to what we all owe one another. (My thoughts with spoilers). (Max, Criterion)
How to Blow Up a Pipeline (2023) – This movie came and went without much public reception but when I saw it last spring, I wrote a bit about how the film was a bracing breath of fresh air, at the end of a wave of “eat-the-rich” content that got as stale as it was fundamentally unserious. Pipeline dramatizes the cold efficiency of eco-terrorists converting their ideology into violent action. Agree or disagree with the characters—and for the most part the movie refrains from judgement—it’s one that will leave you thinking and discussing after it ends. (Hulu)
Say Nothing (2024) – I highlighted this show in my last column. I thought the first half was a ripper. While the second part didn’t entirely work for me, the show was ambitious in portraying not only the initial thrill and excitement of being a young radical, but also how violence inflicts spiritual and psychological wounds on the actors as well as the victims. What are the consequences of violent action even when you think it’s justified? And what is the difference between justice and vengeance? Gabriel Frieberg and I talked about some of that with the show’s creator, Josh Zetumer. (Hulu)
12.12: The Day – Recently, I woke up to texts from my friends asking me “what’s going on in Korea?” Instead of giving you the game of thrones of South Korean politics, I’ll just tell you to watch this film, which is about the 1980 military coup in South Korea, that for a moment we looked like we were getting a sequel to. President Yoon’s illegal attempt to seize power may have failed, but the one in 1980 succeeded and which makes me think, what makes for a successful coup? The details of 12.12 are a bit messy, but the emotional suspense of whether they’ll actually be able to pull it off, the last minute defections and betrayals, all really works. Highly recommend skimming the Wikipedia article before watching. (Freevee)
In other news:
Neon, the distributor behind hits like this year’s Palme D’Or winner, Anora, closed a $200+ million debt facility that “will be used to bolster core operations, including film acquisition, development, production, and distribution, while also expanding into new markets.” I don’t anticipate Neon will make an A24-style commercial pivot just yet… but maybe once it breaks its five-year Palme D’Or streak.
TikTok lost its bid to push back the Jan 19 deadline for the “TikTok ban” law passed this year. Unless the Supreme Court steps in before then, TikTok’s parent company ByteDance has the option to divest its ownership or else companies like Google or Apple will be forbidden from allowing new downloads from their app stores. Polymarket is only giving this a 32% chance of happening but I think it should be a bit higher.”
This concludes Stay Tuned by
Dabbing marijuana is breaking the brains of young people. I have had a tough time with weed in the last few years — everything is so strong, including THC drinks I grab at my bodega for a chill night. Young people are increasingly into dabs, highly concentrated marijuana. About 20% of cannabis users between the ages of 12 and 34 reported dabbing in the past month, compared with 10% of those 35 years and older.
The New Yorker’s Helen Rosner wrote about her favorite dishes in New York this year. We’re discussing in the Feed Me Substack chat.
I think polished celebrities find it freeing to be directed by filmmakers who are slightly nightmarish. Selena Gomez and Addison Rae have both been in front of Petra Collins’ camera, crawling through light leaks and squishing fruit. Kim Kardashian’s director of choice is Nadia Lee Cohen (and Charlie Denis), who has worked with her on several SKIMS campaigns, and now helped her make a haunted home movie. Kardashian covers ‘Santa Baby’, produced by her brother-in-law Travis Barker. After 30 years of perfect, polished, facetuned photos, I’d have fun rolling around in cash beside someone dressed up like Mary, too!
Macaulay Culkin makes an appearance. 
Referencing everyone’s favorite nightmare character in The Shining, the bear suit man. 
I agree with the guy who commented, “Yes!!!!! keep this up! Avant-garde, abstract, surrealism, interpretation, social commentary! this is ART this is creativity!!! let’s goooo”
27% of people said they’d rather give up purchasing coffee than give up traveling. Priceline, Fora Travel, American Express and Bread Financial summarized this year in travel and predicted what the trends for 2025 would be. They found that millennials are 80% more interested in planning a vacation around tennis, a top destination in 2025 is the Dolomites (for the hotels), and many people are planning trips around restaurants.
Lasers, lasers, lasers. That was the biggest trend in dermatology this year. GUYS, I’m getting married next year — can someone tell me what treatments I should be investing in that actually WORK?
Bradley Cooper opened a Philly cheesesteak restaurant in the East Village. Fulfilling his dream of becoming the manic chef from Burnt.
As I was walking out of the Babygirl last week, I saw that artist Teddy Blanks did the typography. I said to my friends that Teddy really works on every new movie, and one of them said, “The Times is about to drop a profile on him.” Such a cool job.
“Where once we had eras, now we have tectonic vibes-based shifts.” Annoyingly accurate essay about tracking “vibes” to keep time.
 | A guest post by
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Guys, shes getting MARRIED next year! Congrats!!
Let me write a definitive guide to lasers for you