Thanks for this post. I’m a fed who was part of the hundreds of thousands illegally fired. It’s not easy to get the perspective that you pull together, and I appreciate hearing from business owners. My family has dramatically reduced our spending and will continue to do so.
This was a great round-up on the actual impact we're going to see for businesses, but I think what's also interesting is HOW this is going to start to be felt beyond pricing. Yes, items are going to get more expensive, but I'm really curious what some of these brands mean when they say they'll take the brunt of it internally. How are they changing hiring, marketing etc to try to make ends meet in these scenarios? What will be the first sign - will we stop seeing large-scale activations that cost $$? That trickles down to less work for experiential agencies, maybe less freebies going out to influencers/less content for influencers... would love the follow-up to be 'what are you cutting, and in what order?'
Took our daughters (4 and 7) to an almost sold-out screening of Minecraft yesterday afternoon in Boston. Haven't really seen anything like it since Barbenheimer opening weekend, when half of the subway car we took to the theater was clearly also going to see Barbie. I don't think our screening was as rowdy as some of the others I have read about, but there were definitely some people who had never been to the movies before and weren't really up on typical theater etiquette. Alas, I haven't seen a crowd that excited for a movie to start in a while. (The last video game I played was NHL '95 on Sega Genesis so I am sure most of the references went over my head, but I was definitely in the minority in the theater.) Neither of our girls have ever played Minecraft, but they certainly know what it is. And it doesn't matter because you know why? Jack Black is sneaky (but not even sneaky?) the reigning King of Kids Movies. Kung Fu Panda, Super Mario Bros, and now this. And that's not even counting Jumanji, Goosebumps, and School of Rock. He is literally a god to the little ones right now. Also, did my I immediately take my girls to McDonalds for the Minecraft-themed Happy Meal? This press conference is over!!!
The kids were actually fine, it was mostly some of the parents. The usual, talking way too loudly, very loudly asking their kids what each and every single reference meant, loudly asking who certain characters were, taking out their phones to take videos of certain scenes -- with their flashlight on! I really got the impression that some of the parents had never been to a movie theater before. I didn't say anything because I got the impression early that this was not going to be a typical screening.
This was really fascinating to read from so many different perspectives! I currently work for a Small Business Development Center in DC in the international business department so helping small companies start to export internationally. A lot of them are becoming very scared & worried about all of this. We have found that a lot of foreign buyers want absolutely nothing to do with us (the US) anymore because we "lost their trust" and are very mad at us.
Disclaimer that this is likely TL;DR territory... also a disclaimer that I realize the length of this brands me as a Boomer but I am decidedly Gen X....
First, the value of your newsletter is a combination of your story aggregation, which I realize takes a lot of effort to curate, but ALSO now the value of crowd sourced data a la Waze or other. When you become a leader in your space the benefit is that the volume of data from which you can draw a hypothesis/conclusion is superior to other alternatives. Prior to release of this newsletter I saw your chat request for input and the size of your audience helps the sample size of data which validates the strength of the analysis... at any rate....
Yes, businesses who built pro formas around manufacturing in China or other non-US sites are now having to alter forecasts based on rising costs and projected A/P but for many there IS a pivot available and margins are the things that will have to be considered in terms of pricing fluctuation.
BUT... consider the goods that can ONLY be sourced from a particular area and will likely be impacted. I speak of wine because that is a vertical with which I have a history but can also be applied to other goods. Barolo, St Julien, Sancerre, Ribero del Duero, Champagne can only be derived in one place and all of them will be subject to tariff. Can you get a red, white, sparkling wine replacement from the US or Washington state? Sure.. and some are very good... but they will not be the same. Consumers will be affected but there will also be a lot of businesses built around providing those products to the US market that will also be negatively affected.
The 35mm print of Virgin Suicides that the Metrograph has is beautiful and the definitive way to see it! Gorgeous golden tone, some sparkling scratches here and there. Kirsten Dunst and Josh Hartnett were the perfect American couple.
I’m just here to say that reading this send, I ended up spending $191 I shouldn’t have spent, on peanut butter, non alcoholic drinks that promise to soothe me and fancy chocolate :)
If anybody want to see a hard number on how Tariffs are about to hit: I work at UMG and our Merch is about to go from $90 for a hoodie of your fav artist to $160. Good night Irene.
Wow, I'm actually pleasantly surprised at how candid some of these founders were about sourcing and manufacturing. When we were just starting out, just saying that any part of your business or product was manufactured or sourced from China was a dirty word. We literally had a retail shop tell us they "loved our product" but because it wasn't manufactured within 100 miles of NY they couldn't carry us and immediately feeling so deflated. This quote stuck out the most to me--“I truly wish we could make these products in the United States. It would lower freight costs, simplify our operations, and create more American jobs. But the infrastructure just doesn’t exist in the U.S.—not for consumer electronics. The idea that a small business like ours could reshore production right now is just not grounded in reality.” - Matthew Hassett"
Same here. We would love to manufacture Mitts in the U.S., but quickly learned that the tooling infrastructure we need just… doesn’t exist here. That was a hard and humbling realization as a founder. Suffice it to say, I think a lot of consumers are about to learn just how many of their favorite small brands rely on overseas manufacturing, and not because we want to, but because there’s no viable alternative.
Thanks for this post. I’m a fed who was part of the hundreds of thousands illegally fired. It’s not easy to get the perspective that you pull together, and I appreciate hearing from business owners. My family has dramatically reduced our spending and will continue to do so.
Thank you for reading, Jewel <3
This was a great round-up on the actual impact we're going to see for businesses, but I think what's also interesting is HOW this is going to start to be felt beyond pricing. Yes, items are going to get more expensive, but I'm really curious what some of these brands mean when they say they'll take the brunt of it internally. How are they changing hiring, marketing etc to try to make ends meet in these scenarios? What will be the first sign - will we stop seeing large-scale activations that cost $$? That trickles down to less work for experiential agencies, maybe less freebies going out to influencers/less content for influencers... would love the follow-up to be 'what are you cutting, and in what order?'
Let’s ask them. We also did a big chat about this the other day in the feed me Substack chat
The comment at the top of the send killed me. Peter, would you ever tell a male reporter / editor “Hope you never get too full of yourself”??!!
Gross.
It’s so funny
comparing this to AccuWeather app is a silly analogy, as the app is quite dependable.
if you're wearing jeans to the gym you don't workout hard enough, are a threat to society
The analogy was forecasting the decimation of the NOAA
Took our daughters (4 and 7) to an almost sold-out screening of Minecraft yesterday afternoon in Boston. Haven't really seen anything like it since Barbenheimer opening weekend, when half of the subway car we took to the theater was clearly also going to see Barbie. I don't think our screening was as rowdy as some of the others I have read about, but there were definitely some people who had never been to the movies before and weren't really up on typical theater etiquette. Alas, I haven't seen a crowd that excited for a movie to start in a while. (The last video game I played was NHL '95 on Sega Genesis so I am sure most of the references went over my head, but I was definitely in the minority in the theater.) Neither of our girls have ever played Minecraft, but they certainly know what it is. And it doesn't matter because you know why? Jack Black is sneaky (but not even sneaky?) the reigning King of Kids Movies. Kung Fu Panda, Super Mario Bros, and now this. And that's not even counting Jumanji, Goosebumps, and School of Rock. He is literally a god to the little ones right now. Also, did my I immediately take my girls to McDonalds for the Minecraft-themed Happy Meal? This press conference is over!!!
Can you give bad etiquette examples? I can forgive rowdy kids
The kids were actually fine, it was mostly some of the parents. The usual, talking way too loudly, very loudly asking their kids what each and every single reference meant, loudly asking who certain characters were, taking out their phones to take videos of certain scenes -- with their flashlight on! I really got the impression that some of the parents had never been to a movie theater before. I didn't say anything because I got the impression early that this was not going to be a typical screening.
Wow. Opening a school for theater etiquette
Happy to join the faculty there.
I think it’s time to buy a ship and start smuggling.
This was really fascinating to read from so many different perspectives! I currently work for a Small Business Development Center in DC in the international business department so helping small companies start to export internationally. A lot of them are becoming very scared & worried about all of this. We have found that a lot of foreign buyers want absolutely nothing to do with us (the US) anymore because we "lost their trust" and are very mad at us.
Disclaimer that this is likely TL;DR territory... also a disclaimer that I realize the length of this brands me as a Boomer but I am decidedly Gen X....
First, the value of your newsletter is a combination of your story aggregation, which I realize takes a lot of effort to curate, but ALSO now the value of crowd sourced data a la Waze or other. When you become a leader in your space the benefit is that the volume of data from which you can draw a hypothesis/conclusion is superior to other alternatives. Prior to release of this newsletter I saw your chat request for input and the size of your audience helps the sample size of data which validates the strength of the analysis... at any rate....
Yes, businesses who built pro formas around manufacturing in China or other non-US sites are now having to alter forecasts based on rising costs and projected A/P but for many there IS a pivot available and margins are the things that will have to be considered in terms of pricing fluctuation.
BUT... consider the goods that can ONLY be sourced from a particular area and will likely be impacted. I speak of wine because that is a vertical with which I have a history but can also be applied to other goods. Barolo, St Julien, Sancerre, Ribero del Duero, Champagne can only be derived in one place and all of them will be subject to tariff. Can you get a red, white, sparkling wine replacement from the US or Washington state? Sure.. and some are very good... but they will not be the same. Consumers will be affected but there will also be a lot of businesses built around providing those products to the US market that will also be negatively affected.
The 35mm print of Virgin Suicides that the Metrograph has is beautiful and the definitive way to see it! Gorgeous golden tone, some sparkling scratches here and there. Kirsten Dunst and Josh Hartnett were the perfect American couple.
Noted 🫡
I’m just here to say that reading this send, I ended up spending $191 I shouldn’t have spent, on peanut butter, non alcoholic drinks that promise to soothe me and fancy chocolate :)
If anybody want to see a hard number on how Tariffs are about to hit: I work at UMG and our Merch is about to go from $90 for a hoodie of your fav artist to $160. Good night Irene.
This is such good reporting Emily!!
Grazie mille
great reporting on these founder perspectives. thank you, emily!
Wow, I'm actually pleasantly surprised at how candid some of these founders were about sourcing and manufacturing. When we were just starting out, just saying that any part of your business or product was manufactured or sourced from China was a dirty word. We literally had a retail shop tell us they "loved our product" but because it wasn't manufactured within 100 miles of NY they couldn't carry us and immediately feeling so deflated. This quote stuck out the most to me--“I truly wish we could make these products in the United States. It would lower freight costs, simplify our operations, and create more American jobs. But the infrastructure just doesn’t exist in the U.S.—not for consumer electronics. The idea that a small business like ours could reshore production right now is just not grounded in reality.” - Matthew Hassett"
Same here. We would love to manufacture Mitts in the U.S., but quickly learned that the tooling infrastructure we need just… doesn’t exist here. That was a hard and humbling realization as a founder. Suffice it to say, I think a lot of consumers are about to learn just how many of their favorite small brands rely on overseas manufacturing, and not because we want to, but because there’s no viable alternative.
Lifting in jeans is somehow gross, stupid, and vainglorious. Well done!
Bad vibes
You made my day
You made mine 🥛